A Scholarly Perspective on Climate Change in the Third Pole
Gangaram Biswakarma, PhD
Tribhuvan University, Nepal
Auburn University, USA
Introduction: A Warning from the Rooftop of the World
Standing in the shadow of Mount Everest, the UN Secretary General warned humanity of climate change and the emergency consequences it brings. This warning was issued nearly three years ago by glaciologists who termed the region as the ‘Third Pole’, that is, the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH). This region holds more frozen freshwater than anywhere on the globe, outside of the polar ice regions (Wester et al., 2019). Recently, the Prime Minister of Nepal addressed the UN General Assembly, “that cry from the rooftop of the world was not heard loudly enough.”
Unfortunately, this has been documented worldwide as a crisis for years, yet the policy responses are lagging. This is not only an issue focused on regional environmental concerns but rather a global issue. It is one of the clearest case studies of climate injustice from which we can learn. It is a slow-motion collapse that unfolds largely outside the frame of global attention.
The Melting Giants and the Cracks Beneath the Surface
Scientifically evident, Himalayan glacier loss is now an increased alarm, extensive, and consistent. An assessment in 2023 by ICIMOD, a leading research body for the region, found that HKH glaciers disappeared 65% faster in the decade compared to the previous decades and could lose up to 80% of their current volume by the end of the century under high-emissions scenarios (ICIMOD, HI-WISE Report, 2023). Recently, mapping over 63,000 glaciers, which resonates with this trajectory, recorded a 12% reduction in the glacier area and a marked decline in the total reserve of ice between 1990 and 2020 (ICIMOD, Changing Dynamics of Glaciers in the HKH Region, 1990–2020). Remarkably, the Prime Minister of Nepal recently mentioned this as well, “Our glaciers are retreating, our mountain slopes are becoming unstable, our rivers are becoming less predictable.”
Less visible to the public eye is the concern of permafrost, the frozen ground on high-altitude slopes. The HI-Wise report also noted that decreasing permafrost extent directly caused landslides and the failure of the infrastructure at the elevations. This is where the destabilizing sequence as a destabilizing process triggers a sequence.
When Water Turns Against the Mountains
The recent and recurrent lived experience seconded the theoretical risk documented in scientific documents. There are more than 200 glacial lakes in the HKH region, posing a threat of outburst risk to downstream communities (ICIMOD, HI-WISE Report, 2023), which can be related to the frequency of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) projected to increase.
This is no longer a confined saying in the pages or a saying of anybody; the projections are confirmed by the catastrophic events in the region. The description of ‘mountain tsunami’ by Nepal’s Prime Minister, followed a pattern already. The recent disaster in Nepal, the Bhote Koshi–Trisuli flood, left at least 1,400 dead and over 6,000 missing. To add to 2023, South Lhonak Lake GLOF in Sikkim triggered catastrophic flooding in the Teesta basin. These are the names of a few, but these events remind us of what is heading forward and what is mentioned in scientific studies.
Why the Himalayas Matter Beyond the Region
It is not like these catastrophic events will remain in the Himalayan region only. This is relevant to every part of the world, beyond the extension of the mountain areas. We know that Himalayan ice and snow are vital water sources for more than 12 river systems flowing through 16 countries, with importance to the 240 million people within the mountain and 1.65 billion further to the downstream (ICIMOD, HI-WISE Report, 2023).
It is obvious that heat melts snow, and a significant portion of major rivers flows. The transborder character of Himalayan hydrology is its extent beyond the Himalayan region. The major rivers originate in the headwaters and cross multiple nations, and a single hydrological event can produce sequential impacts across borders. For example, Nepal’s recent floods affected communities beyond Nepal, in both China and India.
This is the concern: how much we are environmental governance centric, and the transboundary risk requires the cooperation and monitoring framework, which largely comes from the nationally bounded disaster management systems that need to be well equipped.
Communities on the Frontline
This type of cryosphere change has socioeconomic consequences beyond the hydrological and geophysical dimensions. The current adaptation capacity of mountain communities remains ‘wholly insufficient’ relative to the scale and complexity of the hazards now materializing (Maharjan, 2023). Each disaster event effectively resets the accumulated developmental progress of the year. These events destroy infrastructure and livelihoods. Eventually, they create a cycle of poverty traps due to repeated climate shocks, not only to the individuals, communities, or a nation, but also globally.
Nepal, as its Prime Minister noted, contributes less than 0.1% of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet bears some of the most acute physical consequences of global warming. It is perhaps the most significant dimension of the crisis, which shows the path of contribution and consequences. Yet another dimension in the entire issue, climate justice, the contributory responsibility and the distributive vulnerability of consequences.
Toward Resilience: Monitoring, Early Warning, and Cooperation
The existing literature presents a common recommendation. Few of them have shared scientific monitoring, regional cooperation, and significantly scaled adaptation finance, along with a dedicated Himalaya Climate Resilience Mechanism, involving joint satellite monitoring of glacial lakes and coordinated early warning systems, would build a resilient architecture.
Resilience is beyond hazard exposure and terrain alone; mountain settlements demonstrate that resilience is a function of nonlinear interactions between infrastructure quality, building resistance, disaster awareness, and community adaptive capacity. Some areas with considerable geological exposure exhibit relatively high resilience purely because of stronger socioeconomic conditions and institutional preparedness, whereas steep, complex terrain elsewhere compounds vulnerability by restricting accessibility and emergency response (Yan et al., 2026).
Identifying communities that are genuinely at risk requires more than mapping physical hazards. Resilience building must also resist the temptation to treat technology as a self-sufficient solution to the problem. Fontanella (2026) argues that mountain risks are systemic and interconnected, and that effective climate risk assessment, disaster risk reduction, and adaptation planning must account for socio-economic vulnerability and technological considerations together, not as separate tracks.
Crucially, this includes integrating Indigenous and local knowledge (ILK), which shapes risk perception, disaster preparedness, and ecosystem management in ways that satellite data and predictive models cannot replicate independently. Fontanella (2026) notes that technological interventions should be understood in conjunction with social structures, environmental conditions, institutions, and local knowledge, and not deployed as a substitute for them.
Collectively, the effective Himalaya Climate Resilience Mechanism cannot be conceived as a purely technical monitoring front, critically, with the lived knowledge of the communities the mechanism is meant to protect.
Conclusion
Before it’s too late, hearing the warning will save. The events are characterized by uncertainty, glaciers are melting faster than prior, permafrost is thawing, and hazard events are increasing. A trajectory is demanded, the policy response, and collective action in all three pillars of climate change action. These are mitigation, adaptation, and loss & damage.
Are we going the wrong way, standing still for a minute and thinking that outcomes are accelerating faster as we respond? A single event cannot be ignored; it is a precise warning and collapses silently.
References.
- ICIMOD (2023), Water, Ice, Society, and Ecosystems in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HI-WISE)
- ICIMOD (2025), Changing Dynamics of Glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalayan Region, 1990–2020, Maharjan & Sherpa
- ICIMOD, press release on ice loss acceleration
- Wester, P. et al. (2019), The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment, ICIMOD
- Fontanella (2026) on indigenous and local knowledge (ILK), systemic mountain risk, and integration of technological and social approaches to adaptation planning.
Learning Often happens in the classroom, but it doesn’t have to.